“That’s not a very inspiring outlook.”
Credit to Jim Essey from TemPositions for this quote, which was said at the conclusion of an eye-opening presentation by Ron Hetrick from Lightcast at Staffing World this week.
Ron’s an economist, and he was discussing current and future labor market trends that will impact the staffing industry.
While Jim (and most of us in the room) didn’t love what Ron had to say, the information he shared was essential for all of us work within staffing—and provide support to the staffing industry.
Today, I’d like to share a few highlights of Ron’s presentation. I’d also like to invite you to attend our Staffing World Recap webinar on October 16 (see invite below).
Let’s start with some good news
Ron’s insights came from research Lightcast has done to prepare a 69-page report titled “The Rising Storm” (follow this link if you'd like to download it).
The best news of all for the staffing industry?
Despite all the “AI is stealing jobs” headlines, the demand for talent in many of the core roles staffing companies fill will be far greater than the supply of talent for many years to come.
That’s huge.
The not so good news?
There may be no people to fill those jobs—or specifically a lack of the right people, with the right skills, to do the work that will need to be done.
Now, I can’t do justice to Ron’s presentation, so let me just summarize the key points that I took out of his talk (and I encourage you to download the Lightcast report for much more thorough analysis).
The TL;DR version of demographic data
Baby Boomers doubled our workforce growth.
Thank your mom and grandmother for the population boom between 1970 and 1990 that doubled the size of the US workforce. Not only did the boomers have a lot of kids, but female labor force participation also rose consistently, reaching more than 60% in the mid-1990s.
But we are now facing a “Silver Tsunami.”
COVID greatly accelerated the retirement of boomers, and their labor force participation rate dropped sharply in 2020.
Why does this matter?
Because those boomers still require goods and services, and there are not enough people to deliver them. From 2024 to 2032, US population growth will outpace labor force growth by nearly 8 to 1.
How about those Millennials?
Turns out, they are not coming to the rescue. Labor force participation for millennial and Gen Z males had declined dramatically over the years.
And those who are participating (men and women) don’t want to do the jobs that are available. Of the top 10 in-demand jobs, nine do not require a college degree; however, nearly all of the US labor force net growth in the past six years has been from people with bachelor’s degrees.
And we do not have enough jobs for them.
Maybe we can count on Gen Alpha to help?
Um, nope.
The number of high school graduates is on the decline…and will really fall off a cliff starting in the mid 2030s.
To make matters worse, fewer teens are working today. While nearly 60% of teenage boomers had a job, less than 40% of Gen Z work—leaving entry level jobs unfilled and lowering prospects for inexperienced college grads.
Isn’t a shortage of talent good for staffing?
You would think so. I did.
But Ron showed us that we are facing a massive gap between labor-market demand (both quantity of labor and skill requirements) and the supply of talent.
In 2023 and 2024, a lot of that gap was being filled by “asylum seekers” as we had an explosion in immigration that allowed employers to fill roles without turning to staffing partners.
Longer term, the shortage of talent due to boomer retirements, declining birth rates, reduced workforce participation, and stricter immigration policies, will lead to severe talent shortages that will actually depress many US industries.
It will become too hard and too expensive to source talent here, so companies will turn to AI, automation, and robotics or move operations elsewhere.
You may now be starting to see why Jim made that comment!
How can you win?
Did you ever hear the joke about two guys hiking in the woods who come across a bear?
One stops, takes off his hiking boots, and puts on his sneakers.
The other guy says, “you can’t outrun a bear!”
To which his friend replies, “I don’t have to. I just have to outrun you!”
Okay, not a very nice joke, but that will be the reality for you and your company in the years ahead.
Good news. There will be lots of demand for talent.
Bad news. There will be SEVERE talent shortages in the areas that employers need people.
So, it’s time to lace up your sneakers and figure out how to outrun your competitors…how to identify staffing needs faster, build more reliable talent pipelines, accelerate speed to delivery, and do all of this while maximizing productivity so you can keep costs low…and bill rates affordable for your clients.
It won’t be easy to outrun that bear. But for the staffing companies that invest in the right people, technology, training, and support (yes, that includes marketing! 😊), the future may not look so grim.
Don’t miss our Staffing World Recap webinar!
Details are below. Although if you are reading this after October 16, 2025, you can find the recording of the recap webinar at LunchWithHaley.com. |
