Is flat the new normal? For more than a decade, staffing companies got used to a rising tide. Not always a calm one. Or a predictable one. But for a very long time, it was rising. From 2010 through 2019, demand expanded. Clients hired. Recruiters recruited. Salespeople sold. And even when COVID blew everything up, the market eventually came roaring back in ways few of us had ever seen. Then came the reset. 2023 was down. 2024 was worse for a lot of firms. And 2025 did not deliver the rebound everyone wanted. ASA reported that temporary and contract staffing sales totaled $142.4 billion in 2023, down 10.5% from the 2022 record, and later reported 2025 staffing sales of $113.5 billion, down 8.5% from 2024. (Source: American Staffing Association Staffing Employment and Sales Survey,
2023 and
2025 reports.) Technically, the U.S. was not in a recession. But if you owned or led a staffing company, it sure felt like one. AI, data centers, healthcare, defense, and a few other hot pockets helped keep the broader economy moving. But for many traditional employers, the mood was cautious. Slow. Uncertain. The kind of environment where every req needed three approvals, every budget got “revisited,” and every buyer suddenly remembered they had a cousin who “knows recruiting.” Such fun. The uncomfortable forecast I recently listened to an economist talk about the rest of the 2020s and early 2030s. Apologies that I cannot recall his name, but I remember what he said…and his forecast did not make me feel better. The gist was simple: expect a flatter economy for the rest of the decade. Not no growth. Not doom everywhere. But flatter. Slower. More uneven. A few sectors may thrive: AI, data centers, healthcare, skilled trades, infrastructure, energy, defense, and advanced manufacturing. But broad-based economic expansion? Do not build your strategy around it. I’ve followed ITR Economics since 2010, and they have been warning business leaders for years about a major downturn in the early 2030s. Their
current public forecast calls for a second Great Depression beginning around 2030 and lasting into 2036. Feeling motivated yet? Don’t worry, there is a silver lining here. The big idea In a growing economy, growth hides a lot of weakness. A weak sales process. Thin differentiation. Poor account management. Inconsistent recruiting. Random acts of marketing. Slow technology adoption. Leadership decisions made by gut feel and stale spreadsheets. When demand is strong, you can get away with a lot. In a flat or declining economy, those weaknesses get exposed. You do not grow because the market grows. You grow because you take business from someone else. Or because you create something clients value more than what they bought yesterday. That means staffing firms need to shift from catching demand to creating preference. And that is a very different game. What flat changes In a flat market, there are fewer ways to grow. You may find a few hot markets. But more likely, you’ll have to take market share from competitors, increase wallet share with existing clients, move into higher-value services, and build new capabilities. Or, perhaps most importantly, reinvent the business model. What will not work? More cold calls will not fix the problem. Neither will lowering your prices. Yes, lower markups may win some deals, but without operational advantage, that strategy is just a faster path to thinner margins and higher blood pressure. And waiting for the market to come back is not a strategy…it’s a hope. And hope is a terrible operating system. The disruption question Staffing leaders need to look hard at three things: the roles they fill, the industries they serve, and the business model they operate. Ask yourself:
- Are the roles we fill vulnerable to AI, automation, robotics, offshoring, or process redesign?
- Are our client industries likely to grow, stagnate, consolidate, or shrink?
- Are clients trying to add headcount, reduce headcount, increase productivity, or redesign work entirely?
- Are we still selling labor when our clients are buying outcomes?
- Are we positioned as a vendor, a partner, or a strategic workforce advisor?
The next decade will not reward staffing companies that simply do more of what they did in the last decade. It will require change in your business. At Haley Marketing, we have had to ask ourselves the same uncomfortable questions. For 30 years, we have been content marketers serving the staffing industry. We’ve been through the dot-com crash, the post-9/11 downturn, the Great Recession, COVID, and the recent staffing slump. But for us, the writing was on the wall the day OpenAI released ChatGPT. If content creation becomes easier, faster, and cheaper, then marketing companies cannot keep selling the same value in the same way. We had to adapt, reinvent, or die. So, we started building RogIQ, our AI Marketing Assistant. We rethought pricing. We rethought service delivery. We rethought what “value” means when AI can do a lot of the production work. Now, your turn. What will AI, automation, robotics, economic stagnation, and client pressure mean for your staffing business? Here are a few strategies to consider: Grow market share In a flat market, growth often means taking business from competitors. That is not rude. That is math. There’s less total business available, so to grow you must take it from someone else. To win market share, you need to be measurably better at the things clients care about most:
- Stronger candidate quality
- Faster response
- Better fill ratios
- Lower falloff
- Better retention
- Clearer communication
- More reliable execution
- Sharper specialization
- Stronger proof of value
Price can be part of your strategy – if it doesn’t erode your margins. For example, if you incorporate AI and automation to lower cost, you can lower markups without damaging margins. But resist lowering prices just because someone else lowered them. If your client’s #1 value is price, you have the wrong client. Use your marketing to prove why you are the safer, smarter, faster, better choice. That means case studies. Testimonials. Performance metrics. Reviews. Client success stories. Proof that makes choosing you feel less risky than choosing the incumbent. Grow wallet share Your best growth opportunity may already be inside your current client base. Most staffing firms have clients where they serve one department but not another. One location but not five others. One hiring manager but not the whole leadership team. One job category but not adjacent roles. That is opportunity hiding in plain sight. Here’s how you can grow your share of wallet:
- Map every major account.
- Identify departments, locations, and roles you do not serve.
- Build account expansion plans.
- Schedule strategic business reviews.
- Bring clients labor market insight, not just invoices.
- Teach them how to solve workforce problems, not just place orders.
In a flat market, account management becomes a growth engine. But you have to approach it strategically – using account management to upsell and cross-sell. Change industry focus Some industries will stay under pressure. Others will grow because of demographics, infrastructure, reshoring, technology trends, and more. Your company should be asking:
- Where will demand be stronger in 2027, 2028, and 2029?
- Which sectors are hiring because they must, not because the economy is easy?
- Where are clients dealing with urgent labor constraints?
- Which sectors are being created or reshaped by AI and automation?
Do not wait until a market is obvious. By the time everyone sees the opportunity, the best positioning is usually gone. Also, be cautious about chasing the hot, new market. Breaking in will not be easy. And the effort can negatively impact your core business. If you decide to pursue a new industry, treat it like launching a new business—complete with its own business plan and growth strategy. Move up the value chain If clients are pressured to do more with less, they may not want more temporaries. They may want outcomes. That creates opportunities in SOW, project staffing, managed teams, consulting, workforce planning, compliance support, training, upskilling, recruiting process support, and productivity solutions. The positioning shift is simple: from “we provide people” to “we help you get work done.” Easy to say. Harder to execute. Moving up the value chain requires new service delivery models, different sales skills, stronger discovery, better consulting, tighter operations, and the discipline to walk away from bad-fit business. But for firms willing to make the shift, the upside can be significant. Turn AI into your ally This may be the most important strategy. Staffing companies should not just ask, “How do we use AI?” They should ask, “How will AI change what clients buy?” There is a big difference. Maybe your future includes AI talent placement. AI agent implementation support. Hybrid human-plus-AI workforce solutions. Subscription-based automated recruiting support. Or AI-first workforce solutions. The hard questions are coming:
- What happens when clients want fewer people but more productivity?
- What happens when a role is partly handled by AI?
- What happens when clients ask for AI-literate talent and your recruiters cannot evaluate AI competence?
- What happens when your competitor helps clients redesign work, not just fill jobs?
That last one should keep you up at night. Or at least make you pour a stronger coffee. Build the growth engine before you need it A flat economy is not just a sales problem. It is a leadership problem. Staffing firms need sharper positioning, better target account selection, stronger differentiation, better sales enablement, more useful content, consistent nurturing, disciplined follow-up, and real feedback loops among sales, recruiting, operations, and marketing. They also need resilience: stronger cash position, margin discipline, lower client concentration risk, better technology adoption, improved recruiting productivity, and faster leadership decision-making. The companies that win downturns usually prepare before the downturn arrives. Funny how that works. Try this next The next decade may not look like the last one. That does not mean there will be no growth. It means growth will be harder to earn. The winners will choose better markets. Serve clients more strategically. Take share from weaker competitors. Expand deeper into existing accounts. Reinvent before they are forced to. And use AI as a business model catalyst, not just a productivity tool. Flat may be the new normal. But flat does not have to mean stuck. To get ready for what’s coming, ask your leadership team these five questions:
- Which of our client industries are most likely to grow over the next five years?
- Which roles we fill are most vulnerable to AI, automation, robotics, or offshoring?
- Where can we take market share from weaker competitors?
- Where can we grow wallet share with existing clients?
- What part of our business model would we redesign if we were starting the company today?
Your answers may define your next decade. And if this sparked a thought, argument, or mild existential crisis, let’s talk. |
